(A version of this article first appeared on LinkedIn which is contrary to my usual practise where I pen some fiery hot take on events and then water it down for polite society. Website was down, you know, sorry)

2023 is set to be a big year for the travel industry.

Consumers may fear the future, be impacted by the cost-of-living crisis, forced to cut back on essentials, sacred of WW3, but – it appears – travel is the one item that is sacrosanct on their shopping list. Yep, people love to travel!

Professionally, I speak with travel companies all the time and the consistent message I’m getting is that people are partying like it’s 2019 again. But with a twist.

Figures seem to back this up. Heathrow’s YTD passenger numbers this year are nearly 100% up on 2022. They are only a few percentage points and a few hundred baggage handlers off 2019’s peak.

The UN’s World Travel Organisation predicted in January that travel will – with some caveats – be back to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Particularly as China and other Asian countries finally eschew COVID era restrictions, the asymmetrical recovery of 2022 will now spread globally. Prior to the pandemic, Chinese tourists accounted for one tenth of all departures. A recovery here will boost numbers rapidly.

Psychologically, being locked down for two years has, I suspect, had an impact on the population. Pent up demand, ‘revenge travel’ has – I think – led to a wider shift in attitudes that values vacation experiences over – what? – ceaseless DIY, banana bread making, even prudence itself.

In a way, this determination to be open to new experiences, to embrace different cultures, to take time out, is a triumph of the human spirit. Brought low, we aim high.

But there is a twist.

The years of COVID took many of the workers out of the industry. From pilots, to hotel receptionists, to cooks, there is a widespread shortage of human capital behind travel infrastructure. People will have to be recruited and trained to bring levels of service back to pre-pandemic levels.

But this should also be a time for technology to drive structural efficiencies in the industry that could ameliorate the missing workers. For example, the check in process at most hotels is time consuming and frustrating where weary travellers often have to repeat information that has already been provided online previously. (This happened to me this week. I got an email from the hotel the night before my stay asking me to pre-register online to cut check in time. When I arrived, yes, of course, there was a blank form awaiting me. I fall for it every time!)

Digital check in – where travellers check themselves in and prove their ID using technology and receive their keys automatically could help both hotels and the passenger experience. It could help drive down fraud and chargebacks whilst freeing up (fewer) staff to concentrate on the customer experience. More prosaically, perhaps the consolidators could pass on more info along with booking and cash. Just a thought.

Blockchain technology has many potential applications in the travel industry from traveller ID to room management and yields and – here’s a good one! – luggage tracking.

One of the strides forward – perhaps – we experienced during the COVID years was the rapid spread of ordering by App in pubs and restaurants. You could order from the comfort of your own table and have stuff brought to you. Payment was easy too. Obviously, the premise of stopping people moving around a venue has gone thankfully but – unfortunately it seems – so has the technology. Bring it back!

One trend that I’m not sure will take off in 2023 but will in future years, is eco travel. There’s always been a tension between mass market travel and the environment. The time element is key; to do things quickly to fit in with time off from work often means sacrificing slower means of travel and can rule out destinations off the beaten track. Bleisure is gonna be big where consumers piggy back off corporate travel. Speaking personally, I always did this!

People are prioritising travel. They will make sacrifices elsewhere to have a holiday but with the economic environment looking uncertain at best and bleak at worst, I predict that whilst numbers may hold up in 2023 – and even increase – spend may not rise as much. Trading down, shorter haul destinations, cheaper hotels, all-inclusive offers, shorter durations might be order of the day. A lot will depend on whether we hit a recession later in the year.

So, travel is back in 2023, picnicking on the precipice perhaps and wondering whether the dark clouds in the distance will block the sun or float away. 

FOOTNOTES

• Chinese travellers set to double to 59M - Economist EIU – Tourism Outlook in 2023. This was written prior to the relaxing of COVID restrictions and so the numbers in 2023 will probably be much higher. Visa’s March 2023 Global Travel Insight suggests as much.

• Read about travel and blockchain here.

• Some travel trends for 2023 can be explored in this article at Phocus Wire.

• Digital hotel checkout is further explored in Hospitality Tech here.